Track record
We put a number on every graduate. When one of them actually moves, the market marks our homework — and we publish the marking here.
Every row is one call: the estimate that was standing before the transfer, the fee that was really paid, and the gap between the two. Sharp calls and embarrassing ones, same table, same rules. Aggregators do not do this. That is rather the point.
Nothing to judge yet. The first graduate who moves puts us on trial — the results land here, win or lose.
This page fills itself as the mercato happens. When a graduate we had a number on signs somewhere for a disclosed fee, the row writes itself: the estimate that was standing before the move, the fee that was actually paid, the gap between them, with the date and the receipt. Nothing is written in advance. Nothing is quietly deleted afterwards.
Until the first row lands, the only error figure we have is the model’s own: a mean absolute error of €17.9m, measured on real fees it never saw. How that is measured.
What counts as a judged call
- T1He has to be ours to judge
- The player is an academy graduate on this site, and we had published a value for him before he moved. If we never put a number on a player, we do not get to claim him afterwards.
- T2The fee has to be public
- Disclosed fees only, with a link to the report. Undisclosed means unscoreable, so those moves stay off the table instead of being guessed at — a guess about a guess is not a track record.
- T3The estimate is the old one
- We are scored on the number that was standing before the transfer, from the snapshot published at the time, not on anything tidied up once the fee was known. The date of that snapshot sits under every estimate below.
- T4Free transfers are listed, not scored
- A move for nothing still shows up with the value we had on the player, because that gap is real money. It gets no percentage — you cannot be a percentage off zero — so it counts in the euro error and sits out of the median.
- T5Nothing comes down
- A humiliating row stays up exactly as long as a flattering one. The whole point of the page is that we do not get to curate it.
Why we bother
Anyone can publish a number. The only thing that separates a valuation from a guess is whether it is checked afterwards, in public, by someone who cannot edit the result. The rules say how we arrive at a value; this page says how often that value survived contact with a chairman.
Spotted a move we should have judged? Open an issue with the fee and the report. It lands in the next refresh, flattering or not.
Judged up to 2026-08-02 · rules phase0-r1r16-v1 · values gbt-v2. Fees as reported by the linked sources; no Transfermarkt data anywhere in the pipeline.